Future of Winter in Northeastern North America: Climate Indicators Portray Warming and Snow Loss That Will Impact Ecosystems and Communities

Winters in northeastern North America have warmed faster than summers, with impacts on ecosystems and society. Global climate models (GCMs) indicate that winters will continue to warm lose snow the future, but uncertainty remains regarding magnitude of warming. Here, we project future trends winter indicators under lower higher climate-warming scenarios based emission levels across at a fine spatial scale (1/16°) relevant climate-related decision making. Under both scenarios, coincident increases days above freezing, decreases cover, fewer nights below freezing. Deep snowpacks become increasingly short-lived, decreasing from historical baseline 2 months subnivium habitat <1 month warmer, higher-emissions scenario. Warmer temperatures allow invasive pests such as Adelges tsugae (Hemlock Woolly Adelgid) Dendroctonus frontalis (Southern Pine Beetle) expand their range northward due reduced overwinter mortality. The elevations remain more resilient warming compared southerly coastal regions. Decreases natural snowpack warmer point toward need for adaptation mitigation multi-million-dollar winter-recreation forest-management economies.